Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions
The Houston Astros (23-13) meet the Boston Red Sox (14-21) in the second game of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Red Soxodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the series opener 6-3 Monday thanks to a 3-run bottom of the 8th-inning rally punctuated by SS Xander Bogaerts' 2-run home run.
Houston is 8-2 overall in its last 10 games but has lost 2 of its last 3 outings and Boston is just 4-6 in the last 10 but all 4 of those wins have come in the past 6 games.
Astros at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Urquidy is 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 across 28 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston's 11-3 road win over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 1.23 FIP with a .177/.222/.265 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 32.3 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 31 plate appearances (PA).
Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 40 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Boston's 5-3 loss at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 5.10 FIP with a .285/.360/.502 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.7 K% and 90.6 mph EV in 109 PA.
Astros at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Astros +1.5 (-205) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions
Astros 6, Red Sox 2
BET the ASTROS (+100) because the starting pitching matchup with the is a toss-up but Houston has a much more reliable bullpen and a more productive lineup.
Boston's bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 of xFIP, home runs allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate and ERA, according to FanGraphs. While Houston's bullpen is 3rd in ERA, 8th in home runs allowed per 9 innings and 9th in K/BB rate.
The Red Sox are just 10-17 overall vs. right-handed starters and rank 24th in wRC+ (88), 25th in both wOBA (.289) and WAR (1.8). Whereas the Astros rank 3rd in wRC+ (116), 10th in wOBA (.319) and 1st in WAR (8.3).
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Slight LEAN to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATERL, if at all, because Urquidy's pitching peripherals against Boston are much stronger than Eovaldi's against this Houston lineup.
The Red Sox are 2-3 RL as home underdogs and the Astros can put this game out of reach in the late innings against Boston's weak bullpen.
PASS because more cash in the betting market is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. This suggests professional bettors see Astros-Red Sox going Under the total while your average Joe sees all the power in both lineups and thinks to himself "take the Over".
However, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 9 Astros-Red Sox meetings, Fenway is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
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